Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,253,219$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,269,585.0}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 383.5)}}\) (asimptote \(64,269,585.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $299,168$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,016.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(285,016.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,655,969$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,250,044$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,251,479.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 173.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,251,479.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113,953$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,642.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 143.5)}}\) (asimptote \(109,642.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $217,410$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $193,007$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,709.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 178.9)}}\) (asimptote \(184,709.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,356$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,127.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 155.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,127.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,546$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,295$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,309.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 372.9)}}\) (asimptote \(107,309.3\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $195$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,779$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $150,947$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,242.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 211.4)}}\) (asimptote \(162,242.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,895$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,961.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 201.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,961.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,430$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $464,443$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,451$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,952.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 60.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,952.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $72,339$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $114,359$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,761.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 163.2)}}\) (asimptote \(114,761.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,975$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,943.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 141.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,943.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,906$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,282$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,606.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(122,606.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,423$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,045.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,045.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,936$ on 2020-12-13