Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,253,219$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,269,585.0}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 383.5)}}\) (asimptote \(64,269,585.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $299,168$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,016.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(285,016.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,655,969$ on 2020-12-13

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,250,044$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,251,479.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 173.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,251,479.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $113,953$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,642.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 143.5)}}\) (asimptote \(109,642.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $217,410$ on 2020-12-13

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $193,007$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,709.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 178.9)}}\) (asimptote \(184,709.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,356$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,127.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 155.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,127.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,546$ on 2020-12-13

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,295$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,309.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 372.9)}}\) (asimptote \(107,309.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $195$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,779$ on 2020-12-13

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $150,947$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,242.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 211.4)}}\) (asimptote \(162,242.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,895$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,961.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 201.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,961.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,430$ on 2020-12-13

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $464,443$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,451$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,952.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 60.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,952.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72,339$ on 2020-12-13

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $114,359$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,761.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 163.2)}}\) (asimptote \(114,761.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,975$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,943.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 141.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,943.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,906$ on 2020-12-13

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,282$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,606.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(122,606.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,423$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,045.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,045.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,936$ on 2020-12-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 79%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 75%
Costa Rica recovered 29%
Jamaica recovered 25%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,394$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,609.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,609.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,200$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,089.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,089.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,527$ on 2020-12-13

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,879$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,417.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 187.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,417.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $122$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 181.1)}}\) (asimptote \(120.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $612$ on 2020-12-13

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,710$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,436.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 199.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,436.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{270.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 206.0)}}\) (asimptote \(270.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,483$ on 2020-12-13